MANILA -- Philippine economic growth may slow down by about 0.3 percent to 0.8 percent this year if the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) turns out to be as severe as that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
This was the projection of Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank) chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion, who said in a report on Friday that the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic had resulted in an average of 0.5 percent decline in the growth of Southeast Asian economies.
“If this outbreak delivers a severe, but temporary impact, like SARS, (Union Bank’s) ERU (Economic Research Unit) expects the economic impact on the Philippines to be a likely decline of at least 0.3 percent and at most 0.8 percent of annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth in 2020, if and when the outbreak lasts at least six months,” it said.
To date, the coronavirus that originated from China has resulted in the death of 213 people in several countries and affected more than 8,100 people worldwide.
The report said the 2019-nCoV issue may hurt the country’s tourism industry, particularly retail and services, and trade, specifically exports since China is a major trading partner.
It said that while the impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy is seen to be temporary, “it may take time for the movement of people to return to normal.”
Citing 2010 Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data, the report said average foreign tourist spending in the Philippines is at about USD84 per day.
Last year, Chinese tourists to the Philippines reached about 1.5 million, thus, the country “may stand to lose at a minimum of USD126 million worth of foreign tourist spending this 2020 as the coronavirus scare continues to sow fear in the short-term.”
The report also said that people-movement-related businesses may also take a hit in the near term because people will lessen their travels to limit exposure to the 2019-nCoV.
Philippine exports are forecast to remain flat this first quarter as a result of the current health scare along with the wait-and-see stance in the first phase of the US-China trade deal. (PNA)
