A screenshot from WTO official website
GENEVA – The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to fall steeply in the first half of 2020 as the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic disrupts the global economy, the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Goods Trade Barometer showed Wednesday.
"The index currently stands at 87.6, far below the baseline value of 100, suggesting a sharp contraction in world trade extending into the second quarter," said the WTO in its latest assessment.
"This is the lowest value on record since the indicator was launched in July 2016,” it added.
The current measure is in line with the WTO's trade forecast issued on April 8, which estimated that world merchandise trade could plunge between 13 percent and 32 percent in 2020, depending on the pandemic's duration, and the effectiveness of the responses of countries.
Formerly the World Trade Outlook Indicator, the Goods Trade Barometer provides “real-time information” on the course of world merchandise trade relative to recent trends.
The current reading captures the initial phases of the Covid-19 outbreak and shows no sign of the trade decline bottoming out yet.
Trade started decelerating in 2019 even before the pandemic because of persistent trade tensions, particularly between China and the United States, and weakening economic growth.
WTO trade statistics show that the volume of world merchandise trade shrank by 0.1 percent in 2019, marking the first annual decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
Trade was relatively weak in the final quarter of 2019, but the WTO said this is unlikely to have been influenced by Covid-19, which was first detected in Wuhan, China late last year.
Covid-19 cases surpasses 4.9 million
The global tally for Covid-19 infections surpassed 4.9 million on Wednesday, according to a running tally by US-based Johns Hopkins University.
Data showed the death toll worldwide has reached 323,345, with the number of recoveries exceeding 1.68 million.
The US remains the hardest-hit country by the pandemic with more than 1.52 million confirmed cases and 91,921 deaths. The US is followed by the UK with 35,422 fatalities and Italy with 32,169.
A total of 28,025 people in France have lost the battle against the virus, followed by Spain with 27,778 fatalities.
Meanwhile, Russia has the second-highest number of cases, nearly 300,000, followed by Brazil, the UK, Spain and Italy.
China, ground zero of the virus, has registered 84,063 cases so far and its death toll continues to stand at 4,638.
Overall, the virus has spread to 188 countries and regions.
Despite the rising number of cases, most people who contract the virus suffer mild symptoms before making a recovery. (Anadolu)
