MANILA – A Fitch Group unit sees a slower growth rate for coal-fired power projects in the Philippines post-2026 amid the increasing public call to shift away from coal dependence for power generation that led to the government’s issuance of a moratorium on endorsements for greenfield coal power plants.
Fitch Solutions forecasts coal power projects to grow at an annual average of 5.2 percent between 2020 and 2029, generating 93.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2029.
This, however, is “at a much slower rate” than the research group's previous forecast.
“Our forecast revisions result from the moratorium on coal power projects that was announced by the government in October 2020, which will limit the amount of new coal capacity coming online towards the back end of our forecasts after those in the current project pipeline progress,” Fitch Solutions said in a report released Monday.
Citing government sources, Fitch Solutions said the moratorium will halt about 8 gigawatts of pre-permitted coal projects.
“Our forecasts are subjected to significant downside risks as coal projects continue to face very strong and increasing public opposition, including the involvement of several religious associations,” Fitch Solutions added.
Among the initiatives of civil society groups, including several religious associations, to express their opposition to coal power projects include the nationwide protest in September 2019 urging President Rodrigo Duterte to impose a ban on new coal-fired power plants.
More than 42 organizations in May 2020 also announced they are divesting USD1.4 billion from fossil fuels.
Church leaders and civil society groups launched the Eco-Convergence, which also urged local banks to stop funding new coal-fired power projects.
These moves from the public sector gained positive reactions from the government and industry players.
In June 2020, the House of Representatives Committee on Climate Change approved a resolution that includes the end of permitting new coal power projects.
Major industry players, such as AC Energy and Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), have also signaled intentions to invest more in cleaner sources of power.
And last October, Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi declared a moratorium on endorsements for greenfield coal power plants to accommodate the entry of new, cleaner, and indigenous energy sources.
“(W)e still expect a significant amount of coal capacity to be commissioned over the coming decade, with the impact felt only on a much longer term,” Fitch Solutions said.
By 2029, Fitch Solutions sees coal share to power mix at 59 percent.
It added coal remains the cheaper and more reliable option to meet the country’s power demand, especially with the depletion of the Malampaya gas field and infrastructural headwinds to liquefied natural gas.
Based on Fitch Solutions data, nearly 20 GW of coal power projects are in the pre-completion stage as of end-2020. This accounts for 39 percent of the total capacity in the pipeline.
Among the ongoing coal-fired power projects, which the government identified having national significance, are the 1,336-megawatts Dinginin clean-coal fired power plant in Bataan that will be completed by 2021 and the 1,200-MW Atimonan power plant that will be commissioned by 2024. (PNA)
