Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua (File photo)
MANILA -- The shift to Alert Level 1 in more parts of the country will generate an estimated PHP9.4 billion per week of economic activity in gross value-added terms, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said.
During the Talk to the People of President Rodrigo Duterte on Monday, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua presented the benefits of moving to the most relaxed coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) alert level and the Economic Development Cluster’s proposed 10-point policy agenda.
“Ang Alert Level 1 ay magdudulot ng benepisyo sa 62 percent ng ekonomiya at sa halos 20.3 milyon na manggagawa o 48 percent ng total workforce ng bansa. Sa pagbaba sa Alert Level 1, tinatayang mababawasan ng 170,000 katao ang bilang ng unemployed sa susunod na quarter (Alert Level 1 will benefit 62 percent of the economy and 20.3 million workers, comprising 48 percent of our workforce. By shifting to Alert Level 1, we estimate 170,000 fewer unemployed workers over the next quarter),” Chua said.
He said the benefits would increase to PHP16.5 billion of economic activity in gross value-added terms and translate to PHP5.2 billion more in salaries per week if the whole country shifts to this alert level.
This would also result in 297,000 fewer unemployed workers over the next quarter.
If not for the pandemic, he said, the size of the Philippine economy would have reached PHP25.3 trillion in 2022.
“Nakabawi tayo sa 2021 with a 5.6 percent growth, ngunit kailangan pa natin bawiin ang nawala sa nakaraang dalawang taon na nagkakahalagang PHP3.8 trillion. Mapapabilis ang pagbawi natin nito sa ilalim ng Alert Level 1 (We bounced back in 2021 with a 5.6 percent growth. We now have to recover the losses we experienced in the past two years amounting to PHP3.8 trillion. The shift to Alert Level 1 will help close this gap faster),” he added.
Chua said the shift to Alert Level 1 would further improve the performance of key sectors, such as tourism.
“The contribution of domestic tourism to the economy fell by PHP1.5 trillion or 7.4 percent of the GDP (gross domestic product) in 2020. We can recover at least half of that or PHP750 billion by shifting to Alert Level 1,” he said.
Chua also reiterated the need to reopen all schools for face-to-face learning as this will provide a big boost to the economy and improve learning and productivity.
The NEDA estimated that resuming face-to-face learning would increase economic activity by about PHP12 billion per week due to the return of services around schools, such as transport, dormitories, food stalls, and school supplies stores.
This will also avert about PHP11 trillion in productivity losses and improve learning outcomes by about 50 percent.
However, Chua said Alert Level 1 is not fully implementable if working parents need to stay home to help their children study.
He said resuming face-to-face learning is expected to free up the time of one-fourth of parents who skip work or reduce work time to accompany their children in home learning.
Chua also discussed the Economic Development Cluster’s proposed 10-point policy to accelerate and sustain economic recovery in 2022 and beyond. This covers metrics, vaccination, health care capacity, economy and mobility, schooling: fully open face-to-face, domestic travel, international travel, digital transformation, pandemic flexibility bill, and medium-term preparation for pandemic resilience.
He said this agenda would help restore jobs and bring more people out of poverty. (PR)
