WARMER TEMPERATURE. Global temperature is forecast to likely rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least a year in the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said. WMO said the 2023 record of warmest year, with temperature rising to 1.8 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 13.9 degrees Celsius, may likely rise between 1.1 to 1.9 degrees Celsius. (Photo by WAM)
GENEVA – There is an 80 percent likelihood that annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).
This is a stark warning that we are getting ever closer to the goals set in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which refers to long-term temperature increases over decades, not over one to five years.
The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1 degrees Celsius and 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 baseline, according to the WMO report.
It says that it is likely, or about 86 percent, at least one of these years will set a new temperature record, beating 2023, which is currently the warmest year.
There is a 47 percent likelihood that the global temperature average over the entire five-year 2024-2028 period will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial era, says the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Update – up from 32 percent from last year’s report for the 2023-2027 period.
The report was released to coincide with a major speech by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres calling for much more ambitious climate action ahead of the G-7 summit in Italy 13-15 June. (WAM)
